The Application of System Dynamics Modeling in Explaining the Challenges and Perspectives of Banderashk Establishment in Sirjan County

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Department of Management, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran

10.22059/jtcp.2026.409357.670544

Abstract

The continuous growth of international maritime cargo transportation has exerted increasing pressure on the country’s major seaports. Capacity limitations and restricted opportunities for physical expansion have resulted in operational delays and reduced efficiency. In this context, the development of dry ports as a complementary solution can play a significant role in alleviating congestion at coastal ports and enhancing the overall performance of the logistics network. Given the strategic geographical position of Sirjan County, this study aims to identify and analyze the challenges and future prospects of establishing a dry port in this region using a system dynamics approach. This research adopted a mixed-methods design. In the qualitative phase, key challenges were identified through thematic analysis based on in-depth interviews with 12 experts. In the quantitative phase, fuzzy DEMATEL was employed to examine the cause–effect relationships among the identified challenges, while system dynamics modeling and scenario analysis were applied to explore the dynamic behavior of the system under different policy scenarios. The results indicate that the challenges can be classified into causal and effect groups. Economic–financial, socio-cultural, and legal–institutional challenges were identified as causal factors, whereas managerial–organizational, environmental–sustainability, and technical–infrastructural challenges were classified as effect factors. The fuzzy DEMATEL analysis revealed that the economic–financial challenge is the strongest causal factor, while the technical–infrastructural challenge represents the strongest effect factor in the system. Furthermore, the system dynamics analysis demonstrated that the implementation of the proposed strategies and policies—particularly under the optimistic scenario—leads to a significant reduction in the intensity of challenges and substantially improves the prospects for the successful establishment of a dry port in Sirjan County.

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References

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Town and Country Planning
Volume 17, Issue 2
Autumn & Winter
October 2025
Pages 297-328

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History

  • Receive Date: 04 January 2026
  • Revise Date: 14 February 2026
  • Accept Date: 17 February 2026

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