Analyzing the Impacts of Urban Sprawl on Flood and Runoff Patterns with a Sustainable Urban Management Approach: A Case Study of Ahvaz

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of GIS, School of Surveying and Geospatial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

2 Faculty of Civil Engineering, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran

Abstract

Urban sprawl, characterized by uncontrolled and dispersed expansion of built-up areas, is a common pattern of city growth. This phenomenon alters runoff patterns and urban flooding risks by increasing impervious surfaces, ultimately exacerbating flood hazards in developed areas. This study aims to examine the impact of urban sprawl on runoff and flood extent by analyzing land cover changes in Ahvaz from 2017 to 2023. To this end, Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, along with the XGBoost machine learning model, were employed to classify land into built-up and non-built-up areas. Furthermore, Shannon entropy was utilized to assess urban growth patterns, while runoff and flood-prone areas were delineated using Otsu’s thresholding method. The Shannon entropy analysis indicates that built-up areas have expanded towards the urban periphery, leading to an increase in impervious surfaces and intensified runoff. Consequently, over 2 hectares of newly developed land were affected by runoff during the study period. Additionally, more than 15 hectares of built-up areas were inundated during the floods of April 2019 and December 2020. Moreover, multiple regression analysis reveals that urban expansion, alongside precipitation levels, plays a significant role in increasing the occurrence of runoff and flooding events. The findings of this study underscore the necessity of intelligent urban development management through the implementation of permeable infrastructure, the expansion of green spaces, and the optimization of drainage systems to mitigate runoff and flood-related risks.

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References

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Town and Country Planning
Volume 17, Issue 2
Autumn & Winter
October 2025
Pages 411-427

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History

  • Receive Date: 26 January 2025
  • Revise Date: 23 February 2025
  • Accept Date: 19 May 2025

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