Monitoring Urban Land-Use Changes and Simulating Future Urban Development (Case Study of Kirkuk, Iraq)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Department of Geography and Urban Planning, University of Maragheh, Maragheh, Iran

10.22059/jtcp.2025.402308.670522

Abstract

The rapid pace of urbanization and extensive alterations in land-use patterns, particularly in developing regions, have led to critical challenges in sustainable land management, natural resource depletion, and disruption of ecological equilibrium. This study aims to conduct a spatiotemporal analysis of land-use changes in Kirkuk city from 1990 to 2024 and to forecast future trends until 2036 by employing advanced remote sensing techniques and modeling approaches. Multitemporal Landsat 5 and 8 imagery were utilized, and following rigorous geometric and radiometric preprocessing, land-use classification was performed using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm within the ENVI software environment. The classification accuracy was assessed through an error matrix, Kappa coefficient, and overall accuracy, yielding values of 88% (Kappa = 0.90) for 1990 and 91% (Kappa = 0.94) for 2024. Subsequently, a combined Cellular Automata–Markov (CA–Markov) model implemented in IDRISI software was used to project land-use changes up to 2036. Model results indicate that urban areas are projected to expand from 6.8% to over 22.3%, while barren lands are expected to decrease from approximately 88% to less than 74%. Minor increases in orchard and waterbody areas were also observed. These patterns suggest a dispersed and unsustainable urban expansion primarily toward the southern and western parts of the city. The outcomes of this study highlight the effectiveness of integrating SVM and CA–Markov algorithms for monitoring and forecasting land-use dynamics in complex urban environments. Furthermore, the findings provide valuable insights for spatial planning, guiding policies to control unplanned urban sprawl, and supporting sustainable management of natural resources.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Town and Country Planning
Volume 17, Issue 2
Autumn & Winter
October 2025
Pages 359-376

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  • Receive Date: 20 January 2026
  • Revise Date: 27 November 2025
  • Accept Date: 03 December 2025

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