Monitoring Urban Land-Use Changes and Simulating Future Urban Development (Case Study of Kirkuk, Iraq)

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Assistant professor in Geography and urban planning, University of Maragheh, Iran.

2 PhD in Geography and urban planning, University of Maragheh, Iran.

3 M.Sc. in Geography and Urban Planning, University of Maragheh, Iran

10.22059/jtcp.2025.402308.670522

Abstract

The rapid pace of urbanization and extensive alterations in land-use patterns, particularly in developing regions, have led to critical challenges in sustainable land management, natural resource depletion, and disruption of ecological equilibrium. This study aims to conduct a spatiotemporal analysis of land-use changes in Kirkuk city from 1990 to 2024 and to forecast future trends until 2036 by employing advanced remote sensing techniques and modeling approaches. Multitemporal Landsat 5 and 8 imagery were utilized, and following rigorous geometric and radiometric preprocessing, land-use classification was performed using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm within the ENVI software environment. The classification accuracy was assessed through an error matrix, Kappa coefficient, and overall accuracy, yielding values of 88% (Kappa = 0.90) for 1990 and 91% (Kappa = 0.94) for 2024. Subsequently, a combined Cellular Automata–Markov (CA–Markov) model implemented in IDRISI software was used to project land-use changes up to 2036. Model results indicate that urban areas are projected to expand from 6.8% to over 22.3%, while barren lands are expected to decrease from approximately 88% to less than 74%. Minor increases in orchard and waterbody areas were also observed. These patterns suggest a dispersed and unsustainable urban expansion primarily toward the southern and western parts of the city. The outcomes of this study highlight the effectiveness of integrating SVM and CA–Markov algorithms for monitoring and forecasting land-use dynamics in complex urban environments. Furthermore, the findings provide valuable insights for spatial planning, guiding policies to control unplanned urban sprawl, and supporting sustainable management of natural resources

Keywords

Main Subjects

Town and Country Planning

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 03 December 2025

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History

  • Receive Date: 19 September 2025
  • Revise Date: 27 November 2025
  • Accept Date: 03 December 2025

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