The Evaluation and Modeling of the Impacts of Urban Development on Landscape Patterns in Karaj Metropolis

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 PhD Student of Land Use Planning, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Department of Environmental Sciences, Malayer University, Malayer, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment,, Department of Environmental Sciences, Malayer University, Malayer, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Research Center for Environmental and Sustainable Development (RCESD), Tehran, Iran

Abstract

The goals of the present study were to analyze changes in land cover and to estimate a future scenario for 2028 using an artificial neural network in the Karaj Metropolis. To this end, the effects of land use changes in response to urban expansion on landscape patterns were investigated in three baseline, current, and future scenarios using landscape metrics and gradient analysis. The results showed that during a 22-year period, the agricultural and Garden lands have been severely damaged due to urban expansion. The results of the evaluation of changes in landscape also indicate that urban expansion in in development in the north-south transect to the margins (especially northward) and the east-west transect with a gentle slope to the west of the region. It is also anticipated that in the future scenario, if the current trend continues, the northern margin of Karaj metropolis will be changed from natural environment to a completely human-made one. Therefore, considering the results of the Pd and Ed metrics in both transects over the three examined years, it can be said that the area has expanded to the margin and there has not been much changes in the landscape of downtown. In addition, the decrease in the Pd and NP in all three scenarios indicates the consistency of urban landscape. In general, population growth and urban development have made the landscape pattern in Karaj metropolis to be a more regular and less varied one. The results indicate that spatial heterogeneity has altered the landscape patterns. Therefore, the growth of construction land in some areas should be restricted, and balanced development should be adopted to prevent the fragmentation of the landscape.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Town and Country Planning
Volume 13, Issue 1
Spring & Summer
April 2021
Pages 141-166

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History

  • Receive Date: 30 January 2020
  • Revise Date: 17 May 2020
  • Accept Date: 17 May 2020

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