تحلیل آسیب‏پذیری بلوک‏های شهری تهران در برابر زلزله با استفاده از طراحی و اجرای یک مدل مکان‌ـ مبنا

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه شهرسازی‌‌ـ پدافند غیرعامل، دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی، تهران

2 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه سنجش از دور و GIS، دانشکدة جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران

چکیده

ارزیابی آسیب‏پذیری یکی از پیش‌نیازهای تحلیل ریسک در مدیریت بلایاست. آسیب‏پذیری در برابر زلزله به‌ویژه در مناطق شهری در طول سالیان متمادی به دلیل وجود ساختارهای پیچیدة شهری و توسعة سریع افزایش یافته است. به منظور انجام دادن اقدامات پیشگیرانه و کاهش خسارات ناشی از زلزله، تعیین مناطق آسیب‏پذیر و اندیشیدن به تمهیدات لازم ضروری به نظر می‏رسد. بنابراین، هدف از این مطالعه بررسی آسیب‏پذیری بلوک‏ها شهری در تهران با استفاده از یک مدل مکان‌ـ مبنا بود. برای نیل به این هدف، ابتدا معیارهای مؤثر جهت ارزیابی آسیب‏پذیری زلزله در سه گروه در معرض قرار گرفتن، حساسیت، و ظرفیت انطباق‏پذیری (مجموعاً 16 معیار مکانی) قرار گرفتند. با استفاده از نظر کارشناسان و مدل فرایند تحلیل شبکه‏ای اهمیت هر یک از معیارها مشخص شد. از توابع فازی و مدل روش میانگین وزنی مرتب‌شده به ترتیب جهت نرمال‏سازی نقشة معیارها و تهیة نقشه‏های آسیب‏پذیری در سناریوهای مختلف استفاده شد. در نهایت آنالیز حساسیت معیارها انجام شد. نتایج نشان داد معیارهای تراکم جمعیت آسیب‏پذیر و میانگین شیب به ترتیب دارای بیشترین و کمترین اهمیت‌اند. نقشه‏های آسیب‏پذیری مختلف نشان داد مناطق شمالی منطقة مورد مطالعه در همة سناریوها در کلاس آسیب‏پذیری قرار دارند. پایداری و قابلیت اطمینان نتایج خروجی با روش آنالیز حساسیت ارزیابی شد. نتایج نشان داد تغییر وزن معیارها تأثیر قابل توجهی بر خروجی‌های مدل ندارد و به‌وضوح پایداری مدل پیشنهادی را اثبات می‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


حیدری‏فر، محمدرئوف؛ عبدالله محمودی (1400). «تحلیل آسیب‌پذیری کاربری اراضی شهری جوان‌رود در برابر زلزله با استفاده از تحلیل شبکه‏ای و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی»، پژوهش‏های جغرافیای انسانی، د 53، ش 1، ص 119 ـ 137.
خدمت‏زاده، علی؛ میرنجف موسوی؛ اردشیر یوسف‌زاده (1400). «تحلیل شاخص‏های آسیب‏پذیری شهری با رویکرد مدیریت بحران زلزله (مطالعة موردی: شهر ارومیه)»، مطالعات برنامه‏ریزی سکونتگاه‏های انسانی، د 16، ش 1، ص 43 ـ 62.
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